National Polls: Analysis

Cheney-Clueless

My favorite moment of the VP debate: Cheney saying to the moderator
that this was the first he heard that that many black women in America
had AIDS. Clueless. Cheney, for an entire 90-minutes, only mentioned
Bush's name -- that's his running mate, the "president" -- once. They
should have called this the "President (Cheney) -- Vice President
(Edwards) Debate."

-Michael Moore

7.10.04 00:26, comment

30 nations pick Kerry: Poll

34,000 adults surveyed in 35 countries

Respondents oppose Bush foreign policy

TIM HARPER
WASHINGTON BUREAU



WASHINGTON—The rest of the world has spoken: It's John Kerry in a landslide.A
poll of 34,330 adults in 35 countries released yesterday confirmed the
global unpopularity of U.S. President George W. Bush, with respondents
in only three of the countries saying they would prefer to see him
re-elected to a second term on Nov. 2.In 30 countries, including
Canada, Kerry was the runaway choice and in two other countries the
verdict was split, according to a study for the Program on
International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.Globally,
only one in five told the pollsters they preferred Bush be given a
second term by American voters who, so far, seem inclined to do just
that.The poll, conducted by the Canadian firm GlobeScan, also
found respondents in 30 of the nations said Bush's foreign policy made
them feel "worse" toward the United States.Canadians who were
polled chose Kerry over Bush, 61 per cent to 16 per cent, and 71 per
cent of Canadians said Bush foreign policy made them feel worse about
their southern neighbour, 14 per cent said it made them feel better.The
Canadian sample size of 1,598 adults was one of the largest samples in
the study. Phone interviews were conducted between May 27 and July 5.Anti-Bush
feeling ran highest in Norway and Germany (both 74 per cent in favour
of Kerry), France (64 per cent Kerry) and the Netherlands (61 per cent
Kerry).The poll also questioned voters in 12 nations which have
contributed troops to the war in Iraq and found Kerry the choice of
respondents in 10 of those countries."Those numbers show the
precarious situation for those governments who have sent troops to
Iraq," said Steven Kull, director of PIPA."Perhaps most sobering
for Americans is the strength of the view that U.S. foreign policy is
on the wrong track, even in countries contributing troops in Iraq,"
said GlobeScan director Doug Miller.Only the Philippines,
Nigeria and Poland backed Bush while India and Thailand were split.
About one-third of respondents said it would make no difference who
won, or had no opinion.Arab countries were not polled.

.Read Full Story In Toronto Star

9.9.04 16:29, comment

Eleven Public Opinion Insights on the Election

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Republican National Convention in New York ends
Thursday with President George W. Bush's acceptance speech, after which
the presidential campaign will kick into a new level during the last
two months before Election Day. Here is a review of a number of key
points about the election gleaned from recent Gallup Poll analyses of
the people's views and perspectives.

1. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are holding tough in their core states.

Looking at the average of likely voter preferences in the two-way
race across the two latest Gallup Polls, Bush has a 20-point lead over
Kerry in the "red" states, or those that Bush won by more than five
points in 2000. Kerry has a 16-point lead over Bush in the "blue"
states, those that Al Gore won by more than five points in 2000.

2. On the other hand, the race in key showdown states remains remarkably close.

The two major-party candidates are within one point of each other
among likely voters (48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry) when the results
of Gallup's trial heat ballots in the 16 states -- typically referred
to as battleground or showdown states -- are averaged across the last
two polls. (Gallup's showdown states are those in which neither
candidate won by more than five points in 2000.)

Additionally, Gallup conducted August polls in five key showdown
states -- Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa -- and the
average margin between the two candidates across these states (among
likely voters) is two points.

3. Underscoring the closeness of the presidential race,
the American public remains essentially divided in its reaction to the
job Bush is doing as president.

The American public's perception of the job Bush is doing as
president is roughly balanced between those who approve (49%) and those
who disapprove (47%). This has not changed materially for months.
Gallup has asked the Bush job approval question in 10 polls since May,
and Bush's approval rating has ranged only between 46% and 51%.

Bush's overall image -- 54% favorable in the Aug. 23-25 poll -- is a
little more positive than his job approval rating, suggesting more
Americans appear to like Bush personally than approve of the job he is
doing as president.

4. Moderate Republicans constitute a relatively small but important target segment of voters in this election.

Moderate Republicans (that is, Republicans who describe their
political views as "moderate" or "liberal") constitute about a third of
the group of Republican likely voters in Gallup's recent polling, and
are somewhat cross-pressured by the conflict between their party
affiliation and their ideology. Gallup polling finds that moderate
Republicans are about three times as likely as conservative Republicans
(25% vs. 9%) to be swing voters (that is, either undecided or willing
to consider changing their vote). Additionally, 13% of moderate
Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, compared with 4% of
conservative Republicans. All of this suggests that moderate
Republicans are less likely to be locked into a vote for the party and
are therefore more susceptible to campaign blandishments from both
sides.

5. Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards is a strength for the Democratic ticket.

On a head-to-head basis, Edwards appears to be a stronger vice
presidential candidate than Republican Vice President Dick Cheney is.
Edwards has a 52% favorable, 28% unfavorable rating, which compares
positively with Cheney's 44% favorable, 45% unfavorable rating.

When registered voters are asked, "If you could vote separately for
vice president, would you be more likely to vote for: Edwards or
Cheney?", Edwards wins over Cheney by 52% to 42%.

Cheney has the most negative image of any of the six GOP convention
speakers (Bush, first lady Laura Bush, former New York City Mayor Rudy
Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, California Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger, and Cheney) tested in our Aug. 23-25 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

6. Public opinion has turned slightly more supportive of U.S. involvement in Iraq.

Fifty-one percent of Americans now say that the situation in Iraq
was worth going to war over. In early May, that number was 44%.

Similarly, the two most recent Gallup Polls have shown that about
50% of Americans believe that the U.S. involvement in Iraq was not
a mistake. That is up from three polls in late June and early July when
only about 45% thought that sending troops to Iraq was not a mistake,
and the "mistake" number was up to 54%.

Bush is now in his strongest position vis-à-vis Kerry on Iraq since
March. Forty-nine percent of Americans say that Bush can do the best
job of handling Iraq, compared with 43% who choose Kerry. This marks a
turnaround from Gallup's July 30-Aug. 1 poll (just after the Democratic
convention), when 48% chose Kerry and 47% chose Bush.

7. The economy remains a weak spot for Bush.

Kerry continues to lead Bush -- most recently by 49% to 43% -- when
the public is asked which of the two candidates would do the better job
of handling the economy. Although the specific size of this gap has
varied from poll to poll, Kerry has led Bush on the economy across six
different Gallup Polls since early March.

Additionally, Bush has not gotten a lot of mileage out of his
signature economic issue: tax cuts. Kerry has a slight lead over Bush
(47% to 44%) when Gallup asks the public which candidate can better
handle taxes.

The American public is no more likely to say that the tax cuts
passed in 2001-2002 have helped the U.S. economy than it is to say the
cuts have hurt the economy. About a third of Americans -- mostly
Republicans -- say the tax cuts have mostly helped the U.S. economy,
while exactly the same percentage say that the tax cuts have hurt. Most
of the rest say that they have had no effect. About two-thirds of
Americans say that the tax cuts have had no effect or a negative
effect.

8. Despite Kerry's efforts to emphasize his personal
leadership credentials (as evidenced by his service in Vietnam), Bush
is now in his strongest position of the year in terms of being
perceived as a "strong and decisive leader."

Bush's lead has grown on this leadership dimension. Bush now beats
Kerry by a 20-point margin (54% to 34%) when Americans are asked if
the phrase "is a strong and decisive leader" applies more to Bush or
Kerry. Immediately after the Democratic convention, Bush's lead on this
dimension was just 10 points. Now the question is whether his 20-point
lead will expand further as a result of the GOP convention.

Bush has also regained an advantage over Kerry when the public is asked who would be the better commander in chief.

9. Satisfaction with the way things are going in the
United States remains below 50%, but history suggests that presidents
can be re-elected in this more negative environment.

Gallup's Aug. 9-11 poll showed that 44% of Americans are satisfied
with the way things are going in the country, while 55% are
dissatisfied. Half or more of Americans were consistently dissatisfied
with the way things were going in Gallup's polls in 1996, while
incumbent Bill Clinton breezed to re-election. In fact, a Gallup Poll
conducted Oct. 26-29, 1996, less than a week before the election,
showed just 39% of Americans were satisfied with the way things were
going in the country.

The key to the interpretation of this satisfaction measure is attribution of causality.
It is clearly possible for Americans to perceive that the country has
problems, without assuming that the incumbent president bears direct
responsibility for those problems. In some ways, the Bush campaign this
year has used the negative challenge presented by terrorism as a
justification for Bush's re-election. Gallup finds that an incumbent's
job approval rating is a much better barometer of his re-election
chances than is satisfaction with the country's direction.

10. Ralph Nader is not having much effect on Kerry's chances for election.

In terms of the national race, Kerry does no worse against Bush with
Nader in the mix than he does with Nader out of the mix. Among likely
voters in the latest Aug. 23-25 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, a
three-way ballot including Nader puts the race at Bush 48% and Kerry
46%, with Nader getting 4% of the vote. Without Nader, Bush gets 50%
and Kerry 47%. Thus, Bush's lead over Kerry is only one point greater
when Nader is included on the ballot -- a difference that is well
within the margin of error for these polls. Similar results have been
observed in individual states in which Gallup has conducted trial heat
ballots, but in no case does Nader make the difference between Bush or
Kerry leading.

11. Schwarzenegger was incorrect in his GOP convention
speech on Tuesday when he asserted: "The president didn't go into Iraq
because the polls told him it was popular. As a matter of fact, the
polls said just the opposite." 

A majority of Americans supported the idea of the invasion of Iraq
before Bush made the decision to commence military action in March
2003. Gallup's March 14-15, 2003, poll showed that 64% of Americans
favored "invading Iraq with U.S. ground troops in an attempt to remove
Saddam Hussein from power," and 57% agreed that the Bush administration
"has made a convincing case about the need for the U.S. to take
military action against Iraq." A March 17, 2003, CNN/USA Today/Gallup
poll asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of Bush's decision to go to
war if Saddam Hussein does not leave Iraq in the next 48 hours?"
Sixty-six percent of Americans approved; 30% disapproved.

Survey Methods

The most recent results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004
national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 23-25, 2004. For
results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with
95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage
points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 709
survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004
general election, according to a series of questions measuring current
voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the
total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the
margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter
model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter
sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 876 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of public opinion polls.

2.9.04 19:27, comment

Analysis of Zogby Post Convention Poll

The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and Christopher Conroy

The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace.
Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base.
The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing
constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential
growth in the electorate.

The
most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr.
Bush’s standing among them is weak.He is generally well liked among the
undecideds,having a strong favorability (56%), but his job
performance
is another story. Only 32% approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31%
believe the countryis headed in the right direction. The undecideds are
not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a favorable opinion of
him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a
quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their
opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally dissatisfied with the
President, but are still not acquainted enough with the Senator from
Massachusetts to support him.

The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to
have fallen flat. Mr.
Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former
Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush isalso
running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the
Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s
total with 69%. Mr.Kerry is also running very strong among
Catholics,topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only
has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like
gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate
Catholic voters from Kerry.

The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South.
While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest
boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in
his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not
only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South
(55% for both), theKerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in
the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the
South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the
right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states,among Young voters and among Single voters. In the
Blue
states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr.
Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is
winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29
year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is
winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President
Bush’s
eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and
base Democratic constituencies,and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening
of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger leadin
two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell
himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large
gains amongst thesmall, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is
in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who
will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they
did in 2000 – and young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like
Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to boost his total
share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr.
Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t
vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s
voters and stealing twice as many (8% to4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000
than Bush is stealing
of Gore voters in 2000.

John Zogby is President of Zogby International.
Christopher Conroy is Political Research Associate at
Zogby International.

3.8.04 18:53, comment